Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Subclass_Textbooks Buku ini sesuai dibaca oleh

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Area X has been cut off from the rest of the continent for decades

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Marly's Ghost

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Subclass_Textbooks Buku ini sesuai dibaca olehEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real